Your browser (Internet Explorer 7 or lower) is out of date. It has known security flaws and may not display all features of this and other websites. Learn how to update your browser.

X

Gold Prices Rally Ahead of Key US Jobs Data as China's Gold Demand Falls, Trading Jumps

GOLD PRICES recovered one-third of this week's 2.4% drop from 16-month highs above $1300 per ounce on Thursday in London, rallying as the Dollar paused its rise following weaker US jobs data.   Silver again extended the move in gold, jumping 2.5% from yesterday's 1-week low to touch $17.61 per ounce as the start of New York trading approached.   Following yesterday's shock miss on the private ADP estimate, Friday will bring the US government's monthly estimate of net job creation – a data point often spurring strong volatility in currencies and financial markets, including gold and silver prices.   New data today showed the number of jobless benefits claimants rose again last week from mid-April's four-decade low.   World stock markets meantime held flat, curbing 3 days of losses, while bond prices slipped but commodities jumped, led by a 4% surge in crude oil.   "The [precious metals] complex feels overdone," says London brokerage Marex Spectron, repeating its comment to clients earlier this week, "but it may be a while before any correction happens.   "The [gold price] still seems to be happy meandering around at these levels, and it will take some form of external factor to move it conclusively."   New data Thursday from the China Gold Association said trading turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose 45% in the first 3 months of 2016 from the same period last year, while gold contract trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 79%, but the country's demand for physical gold declined.   "Gold is approaching near key graphical support of $1264-1270," says the latest technical analysis from French investment bank and bullion market maker Societe Generale, after meeting "resistance" at the January 2015 high of $1307 per ounce.   "Short term, upside is likely to remain capped. [But] it is worth underlining that gold prices, for the first time in years, breached the monthly Moving Average and the down channel [starting from 2013] on the higher side [at] $1264."   "[Monday's] new high not confirmed," says the latest Technical Weekly from German financial services group Commerzbank, pointing at momentnum indicators after the failure to hold above $1300 per ounce.   "We would allow for some profit taking here...[But] provided key support holds at $1245, we still favour a recovery and a retest of the topside."   Gold prices in China – the world's No.1 miner, importer and consumer nation – today fixed at Shanghai's new benchmark auction level with international quotes, having risen from a discount to a $2.35 premium on Wednesday.   Claiming a "growing influence" for the world's second-largest economy on global gold prices, government-sanctioned trade body the China Gold Association today said the country's gold mining output held flat in the first quarter of 2016 from Q1 2015 at 112 tonnes.   Gold consumption meantime fell almost 4% to 318 tonnes overall, with jewelry demand dropping 14% and industrial use falling 5%, but investment demand rose sharply.   Gold bullion bar demand rose 22% to more than 91 tonnes, while gold coin demand totalled almost 8 tonnes, an increase of 130%.   The People's Bank of China meantime issued a new rule, to start 1 June, allowing wholesalers to import or export gold up to 12 times using 1 permit, rather than applying separately each time – a move aimed, according to the Shanghai Daily, at "increas[ing] bullion imports."   China, like world No.2 consumer India, bans the export of gold bullion, requiring some manufacture into jewelry or other items before gold can be shipped out.

meer lezen

Gold Bullion Bounces as Dollar Falls on Worst US Jobs Data Since Jan 2014

GOLD BULLION dipped below $1280 per ounce in London trade Wednesday, retreating more than 2% from Monday's near 18-month high before jumping over $10 after new data showed the US economy added the fewest jobs since January 2014 last month.   World stock markets fell once again, and the US Dollar slipped from its highest FX rate versus the Yen in more than a week, also touching a fresh 9-month low versus the Euro.   That drove the price of gold bullion for Eurozone investors down to €1110 per ounce – a level first seen in mid-February during this 2016 upturn – until popping 0.8% higher after the US employment data from private-sector payrolls provider ADP missed analyst forecasts of 196,000 net jobs with the lowest figure in 26 months at just 156,000.     Silver meantime extended the drop in gold bullion prices, falling near 1-week lows beneath $17.20 per ounce to drop almost 5% from Monday's 16-month top, before jumping to $17.40 on the US jobs news.   "The signals that the gold rally has gone too far too quickly [have] increased in number and intensity," says analyst Tom Kendall at Chinese-owned commodities bank, bullion market-maker and London benchmark participant ICBC Standard Bank.   Kendall points to a surge in demand for bullish options contracts, a widening premium for August futures over June, and a bump to $2 per ounce in exchange for physical contracts – all on a new 6-year high in total open interest in Comex gold derivatives.   "At the same time," ICBC Standard Bank's analyst adds, "another project-related [gold miner] hedge...was executed" to sell future production at today's Canadian Dollar price, currently 15% higher from a year ago.   Gold miner hedging rose to 2009 levels in the first quarter of 2016, according to specialist analysts Thomson Reuters GFMS.   Amongst investors and speculators, "The market is very long," agrees London brokerage Marex Spectron's David Govett, also noting "profit taking and some light [gold mine] producer selling" on Tuesday's failure to hold above $1300 per ounce.   "Without fresh stimulus...[gold] is going to find it hard to continue on its upward trajectory."   Looking at the key Asian consumer nations, "The Indian market remains very subdued," Kendall concludes, "and the Shanghai arb has dropped below $2.00."   Today's Shanghai Gold Price saw China's new benchmark rally from a discount to comparable London quotes, fixing some $2.35 per ounce higher than international prices at the afternoon auction.   But the rising gold price will "smother" demand from India, says Bloomberg, with gold bullion imports already two-thirds lower last month from April 2015 according to Indian government-Swiss refiner joint-venture MMTC Pamp, down below 20 tonnes.   "Jewellers [are] betting on Akshaya Tritiya sales to clear piled up inventory," says the Economic Times of India, quoting various industry forecasts for perhaps 2-3% growth from the same Hindu spring festival last year down to a possible decline of 15-20%.   "This year, Akshaya Tritiya falls on Monday [9 May]," says trade-body the IBJA's vice-president Saurabh Gadgil. "So, we are getting a full weekend and sales will definitely pick up."

meer lezen

Gold Price 'Hits Resistance at $1306' as GLD ETF Adds Most Metal Since 2011 Peak, US Attacks 'FX Manipulators'

GOLD PRICES held unchanged from last week's close in London trade Tuesday, returning from the May Bank Holiday at $1295 per ounce as world stock markets fell with a weakening US Dollar.   European stock markets returned from May Day to drop 1.5%, while commodity prices extended yesterday's 1% fall.   Tokyo's Nikkei index yesterday sank over 3% to start Japan's Golden Week holidays more than 15% down for 2016 to date.   The Yen then rose overnight to its highest level against the US Dollar since September 2014, as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key interest rate to a new record low of 1.75%, with governor Glenn Stevens saying "Inflationary pressures are lower than expected."   That drove gold priced in the Australian Dollar 2.1% higher inside 30 minutes, back near February's 4.5-year highs.   "Gold rallied to a high of $1303 [on Monday] but was unable to break resistance at $1306.50," says a technical analysis from Canada-based Scotiabank's New York office, pointing to gold's January 2015 high.   "Profit-taking emerged...[and] resistance remains at the 15-month high."   The world's largest gold-backed trust fund, however, yesterday expanded at the fastest 1-day pace since gold prices shot towards their all-time peak in August 2011.   The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) added almost 21 tonnes to the metal backing its shares Monday, reach 825 tonnes, the ETF's largest size since mid-December 2013.   When the price of gold first pushed up through $1300 per ounce in September 2010, the GLD ETF held 60% more gold than today.   Monday's economic data said US manufacturing activity retreated near the slowest since 2009 in April, while the Eurozone expanded faster than analysts forecast on the Markit PMI survey.   Chinese data this morning then reported the 13th consecutive month of shrinking manufacturing activity on the Caixin PMI survey.   "Total new orders stagnated and new export work fell for the fifth month in a row," says a China manufacturing note from Markit.   The Shanghai Gold Price benchmark – launched on 19 April – today showed a discount to world spot prices for the second session running, returning from the Labor Day holiday to lag the 1.4% rise in US Dollar prices and settle $1 per ounce below comparable London quotes even as the Yuan edged higher on the FX market.   The US Treasury on Friday named Japan, China and Germany as "potential currency manipulators" reports the Financial Times, tracking their exchange rate versus the Dollar and threatening "remedial action" if diplomacy fails to reverse policies accused of unfairly devaluing their currencies to boost exports.   US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew reportedly "warned Japan and the Eurozone at the G20 in Shanghai in February that the Obama administration is losing patience with use of beggar-thy-neighbour tactics," said the UK's Daily Telegraph last week.   "Germany in particular is coming into the US cross-hairs...[while Japan's] Abenomics [is] 'dead in the water'," according to Japanese bank Nomura's strategist Richard Koo.   Following gold prices lower, silver meantime "appears to have found strong resistance at the $18 level," says Scotia, after it also retreated from Monday's pop to the highest price since mid-January 2015 at $18.01 per ounce.   Revisiting yesterday's lows at $17.48 in London on Tuesday, silver prices traded 3% below Monday's peak.   The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV) also expanded sharply on Monday, taking an extra 56 tonnes to back the number of ETF shares in issue and reaching its largest level since December 2014 at 10,538 tonnes.

meer lezen

Silver Investing Mania 5 Years to the Day

Silver just marked its 2011 investing mania's big peak with a 16% month-on-month jump...   SILVER INVESTING prices in the wholesale market just celebrated the 5th anniversary of their all-time top with a fresh but very familiar surge, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.   A key component in electronics, alloys, chemicals production and solar energy, silver closed April with a 16% gain from the end of March versus the falling US Dollar.   Spring sunshine plus super soaraway silver prices...? They were last seen together exactly 5 years ago, the last trading day of April 2011.   Perhaps you remember the last trading day of April 2011. Many silver investors will never forget it. Nor will their Profit & Loss account.   Silver prices had outrun the surge in gold prices 4 times over...jumping more than 28% from the end of March to start the long Easter Bank Holiday weekend at pretty much the highest price in history...   ...just a few cents shy of the $50 per ounce level it had touched in January 1980 during the notorious Hunt brothers' attempted corner of the silver market. Tuesday 26 April 2011 had seen Comex silver futures contracts touch above $49 per ounce. Thursday 28 April then saw the London Silver Fix come in at $48.70 per ounce, the third highest price in that wholesale market auction's 120-year history – again, only just behind the peaks hit as the Hunt brothers' corner crested and began its collapse.   But like January 1980, the 2011 peak proved to be just that. Silver ended the year lower by one-third, and scarcely looked back...sliding and sinking and sliding again to just $13.65 in late 2015.   Now here we are, marking the end of another April with the highest monthly close on the London Silver Price since August 2014, and the sharpest 1-month rise since the crash rebound of summer 2013.   How come?     The silver surge which burst 5 years ago this week looks, on pretty much any analysis, like a mania in hindsight. It looked pretty hot back then too.   Indeed, one key reason persistently cited for joining the 2011 silver investing mania was that it was a mania – a mania crowned by celebrity tipster Jim Cramer saying that for as long as retail investors kept buying, the price would keep going up!   "Buy this bubble," in other words, "because it's a bubble." And for proof, you didn't have to look any further than the empty shelves at coin and small-bar retail shops.    Private investors happy to 'defend' their savings by immediately losing 10% or more to coin and small-bar dealing costs (oh, and 20% sales tax in Europe) found it tough to buy as much as they wanted. And they wanted a lot. Because that shortage proved that silver was about to run out!   The global wholesale market also hit a series of supply-chain blockages in spring 2011, driven not by a shortage of metal however, but by a shortage of trucks and handling staff to cope with the surge in shipping orders...driven by coin mints and bar manufacturers racing to keep up with that small-investor demand emptying the shelves at their local shops.   Here at end-April 2016, we've got a nice little silver shortage narrative in play, but it's much less urgent or widespread than the mania of 5 years ago. (It also isn't new, even if it has become news.) A bigger contrast is that, this time, it isn't private investors hoarding coins and bars who've caught the silver bug worst. Now it is professional money managers and hedge funds instead. But only using borrowed money.   Yes, key mania bellwether the Sprott Silver Trust (NYSEArca:PSLV) reached a 5.9% premium to actual silver prices at the start of April (it's a closed-end fund, so the share price can reflect demand for the shares more than the value of underlying assets it holds). That was the widest over-valuation to its silver backing's market price since mid-2012. But it was a fraction of that year's 32% peak or the 25% level seen in April 2011. (Sprott still issued more shares, as it did in 2011, destroying the premium once again but with shareholders who spot the loss of trust-fund value telling themselves it's like "taking one for the team...[for] the greater good" apparently.) Nor is spring 2016's silver surge due to money managers using more efficient exchange-traded proxies like the giant iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV). Although back to 2014 levels, it needed to add only 137 tonnes this month – barely 1.3% extra – to meet expanded demand for its shares.   No, the big silver mania this time is gripping hedge funds and other hot-money speculators using leverage to boost their gains – and to size up their risk as well, of course – in Comex silver futures and options.   Unlike buying metal outright, or tracking its cash price with the SLV trust, the silver contracts traded on the CME Group's Comex exchange only require a small downpayment. Getting all the price move for only a fraction of the initial cost is the whole point.   Miners, refiners and other supply-chain players use futures and options to hedge their exposure to falling prices. By selling it 'short', they will at least get a profit on that Comex trade to help cover any financial loss made on the actual metal they're mining, processing, shipping or holding in inventory.   On the other side of the trade, no one speculating in Comex silver contracts actually wants silver. They'd buy the metal instead if they did. And betting on the direction of prices, non-industry players had this month already built the largest "net long" position (of bullish minus bearish bets as a group) on record. And unlike gold speculators, they also refused to back off ahead of last Wednesday's US Fed announcement on interest rates.   All told, as of reporting day Tuesday, the 'Managed Money' category of traders alone held a net bullish bet equivalent to 10,920 tonnes of silver – a massive 40% of annual world mining output. The notional value of that net betting reached $5.95 billion, the largest size since end-2012, when silver prices were trading almost twice current levels, up at $35 per ounce.   What happens to silver if all those bullish Comex traders demand delivery of metal when their contracts come due? They won't, because they don't want silver. They would simply buy the metal if they did. Nor do they want to spend all the money needed to get it (if they can afford it). Because to get the physical silver promised by their Comex contracts, they'd have to stump up the rest of the cash needed to buy it – on top of the small downpayment already made (known as 'initial margin').   So this speculation isn't, in truth, about silver. It's about silver prices, and what they represent or signal. And that, with the US Fed standing pat on interest rates this week, has nothing to do with silver's myriad industrial uses, not even the huge jump in China's solar panel installations.   Silver has jumped because the Fed has failed to follow-up its December rate rise – something which solid and persistent investing demand says longer-term savers always expected, even before the hot money started building towards its record-high net long betting earlier in 2016.   Used as money everywhere throughout history, silver is still seized on as a store of value when it matters. But its price is also very volatile. Gold on crack, if you like. Outside the Comex, it's nowhere near a mania today. Not yet. And investors wanting to take a position can simply buy physical silver at low cost as their own property. You don't need wide dealing spreads on coins, complex trust-fund structures, or leveraged bets.   I mean, Isn't 16% inside one month a fast enough gain as it is?

meer lezen

'Patient' Fed Sends Silver to 13-Month High But Demand to Buy Gold Already Dented by Q1 Jump

BUY GOLD prices headed for their 4th sharpest weekly rise of 2016 to date on Friday in London, coming within $2 per ounce of March's 13-month peak as world stock markets fell with the US Dollar and commodities edged higher again.   The Dollar fell near 3-month lows against the British Pound and 2-week lows versus the Euro after first-quarter data showed GDP across the 19-nation Eurozone – the world's single largest economic bloc – growing faster than either the US or UK figures released earlier this week.   The 330-million citizen curency union, however, then slipped back into annual consumer-price deflation of 0.2% this month, led by an 8% drop in energy costs.   The Central Bank of Russia meantime held its key interest rate at 11%, following the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan in making no change to policy at this week's scheduled meetings.   Prices to buy gold in Rubles fell – bucking this week's trend for all major currencies bar the Japanese Yen – as the Russian currency rose to its highest US Dollar value since November on the FX market.   Dollar investors wanting to buy gold Friday saw the price touch almost $1281 per ounce, trading 3.4% above last week's finish.   "I believe that, in a more interconnected world, labor slack should be assessed in a global context," said US Fed 'dove' Robert Kaplan in a speech in London on Friday, "[because] excess capacity outside the US may dampen inflation pressures in the US at a given level of unemployment.   "The effort to 'normalize' monetary policy is important [but] removal of accommodation should be done gradually and patiently...From a risk-management point of view, our monetary policies have an asymmetrical impact at or near the zero lower bound."   "With the Fed effectively taking itself out of the rate hiking business at least until June," says a note from US brokerage INTL FCStone, "it seems that the path of least resistance for gold and the rest of the precious metals group is higher still over the short-term, as the Dollar sell-off shows no sign of easing."   But "if Fed rate hike expectations return to the market," counters German financial services group Commerzbank, "we see correction potential for silver...together with gold...following its sharp price rise in recent weeks."   Should the US Dollar strengthen ahead of the Fed's June meeting, "the silver price could then fall to as low as $15 per troy ounce," it warns, pointing to speculation as the driver of this latest jump.   Global demand to buy gold jewelry, coins, bars and for industrial use fell 24% year-on-year amid January-to-March's strongest quarterly price rise in 30 years, analysts Thomson Reuters GFMS said in a new report this week.   Dollar prices have this month averaged 5% above the Q1 average, but slipped $6 per ounce to $1240 per ounce from March, the highest monthly average since January 2015.     Silver today matched the 2016 rise in prices to buy gold, extending the week's 4% jump to reach the highest level since January last year above $17.85 per ounce.   With several major gold miner companies reporting larger output this week for the first 3 months of the year, new data from China – the world's No.1 gold mining nation since 2007 – meantime said Friday that it produced 0.8% more gold in Q1 than the same period last year.

meer lezen

Fed & BoJ Indecision See Gold Prices Jump, Yen Leaps as Dollar Falls with Stocks

GOLD PRICES touched a 1-week high Thursday lunchtime in London, reaching $1259 per ounce as the Dollar fell with world stockmarkets as the Bank of Japan followed yesterday's "no change" decision from the US Fed by also voting to maintain current policy, rather than increase stimulus.   Tokyo's Nikkei index sank 3.6% by the close, while European equities dropped over 1% after the Tokyo central bank held QE money creation at a record pace of $740 billion per year, with deposit interest rates for commercial banks held at minus 0.1%.   Gaining 2.2% from last week's finish against the Dollar, gold rose against all major currencies barring the Japanese Yen, which shot to 1-month highs on the FX market following the Bank of Japan's announcement.   New data meantime showed Japanese household spending sank 5.3% per year in March, while consumer prices fell harder than forecast, deflating by 0.3% excluding fresh food.   "The market had clearly worked itself into a frenzy of expectations," says Swiss bank Credit Suisse's head of equity sales in Tokyo, "demanding that the BoJ take action" against slowing growth and lower inflation.   "In retrospect that looks like a misguided view."   Silver also recovered its brief drop today from before Wednesday's Federal Reserve statement, rising back to $17.40 per ounce – a fresh 11-month high when hit last week.   Gold has now risen 20% since the Fed finally raised its key interest rate after 7 years at zero in December last year. Silver has gained 27%.   "The Dollar is still subdued," says Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi's analyst Jonathan Butler, "and falling US Treasury yields similarly are giving some upside to gold."   "Resistance comes in at $1282.50," says a technical analysis from Canada-based Scotiabank's New York office, "and only a move above [that] March 11th high would return [gold] to the bull rally that began in December."   Overnight in Shanghai – where investors in failed $5 billion asset-manager Zhongjin Capital have begun protesting the police for repayment – gold prices hit a 1-month high against the Yuan, fixing at the city's new benchmarking auction some $6 per ounce above equivalent London quotes this morning.   With commodity prices rising 14% from February's new 12-year lows, meantime, UK fund management group Schroders – which saw client assets swell to a record £325 billion by end-March ($472bn) – has launched an Alternative Solutions Commodity Total Return, investing in energy, agriculture and the metals sector according to CityWire.   Crude oil held steady at $45 per barrel of US benchmark WTI on Thursday, while corn held 10% above March's new 1-year low.   After gold bullion rose at the fastest pace in 3 decades during the first quarter, South African investment house Investec now reckons gold will be the best performing metal or mineral in 2016.   Bank and trading-house analysts have meantime raised their average 2016 full-year forecasts by $90 per ounce since the start of January, reports Thomson Reuters today, up from  $1118 to $1209.   "The chief supportive factors," the news-wire quotes Austalian financial group Macquarie's analyst Matthew Turner, "are the shift in Fed stance, the weaker Dollar and the prospect of inflation."

meer lezen

Gold/Silver Ratio Drops Fastest Since Start-2012 Ahead of US Fed Decision

GOLD and SILVER bullion held firm ahead of the US Federal Reserve's latest policy decision, due later on Wednesday,    Asian stock markets slipped and European equities held flat as the start of New York trade approached.   The S&P 500 index of America's largest listed businesses closed last night 3.2% higher from the last Fed announcement in mid-March.   Gold prices today held 1.8% higher, keeping half of the precious metal's initial surge to $1271 per ounce made after the US central bank cut its projected number of interest-rate hikes from 4 to just 2 for 2016.   Silver prices meantime traded 14% above where they stood at the last Fed meeting, having extended their immediate jump by a further $2 per ounce to a series of 11-month highs.   "Silver remains rampant as the ratio with gold continues to drop towards 70:1," says today's commodities note from Chinese-owned bullion bank ICBC Standard Bank.   Nearing a two-decade high above 83 at this point in February, the Gold/Silver Ratio today touched 71.8 – the lowest price of gold in silver bullion terms since May 2015.   Dropping 14% since that recent peak, the Gold/Silver Ratio has fallen at its fastest pace since the start of 2012.   With silver prices now outstripping gold's 18% gains for 2016 to date by two-fifths, "Late entrants to this party will leave with an almighty hangover," warns ICBC Standard Bank.   "But it is very hard to predict when the music will stop."   "[Gold's] rally so far in 2016 [also] developed too rapidly in our view," says a new quarterly update on world supply and demand data from specialist analysts Thomson Reuters GFMS.   "With poor demand from Asia we expect the gold price to ease sooner rather than later, particularly if fears about the global economy continue to abate.   UK economic growth retreated to the slowest quarterly pace in 3 years at 0.4% between January and March, new data said today.   Eurozone borrowing growth held unchanged in March, the European Central Bank reported, with new bank loans expanding by only 1.6% per year despite the ECB's move to more deeply negative deposit interest rates and now €80 billion per month in QE bond purchases.   With concerns over Chinese debt defaults rising, stockmarket-traded businesses in China had to wait 70 days on average to receive payment in 2015 the Financial Times reports today, up from 60 days the year before and the longest wait since 2001.   Debtor days were still one-third below the level of the year 2000 however, according to financial database Wind Information.   The Fed is scheduled to release only a statement today, rather than the economic projections and formal press conference at which major announcements are more usually expected.

meer lezen

Gold Bullion Slips 'But Supported by Tame Fed' as Dollar Falls, China Default Fears Rise

GOLD BULLION erased an overnight 0.6% gain versus the falling Dollar in London on Tuesday, trading back at $1232 per ounce as Asian stock markets shrugged off yesterday's drop in US equities but European shares held flat ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision on US interest rates.   Major government bond prices ticked higher, nudging yields down, as commodities steadied.   The British Pound broke new 2-month highs above $1.4550, driving the price of gold bullion down to a new 10-week low of £847 per ounce for UK investors.   Trading in US interest-rate bets now puts no chance on the Fed raising from 0.50% tomorrow, but the odds on a hike at the June meeting have risen above 1-in-5 – up from 1-in-6 a month ago – according to data from futures exchange CME.   "The more tame Fed tightening cycle, compared to expectations last year, should support gold," says bullion market-maker HSBC's London analyst James Steel.   But "investors are trimming risk ahead of the FOMC tomorrow," says a note from commodities and bullion bank ICBC Standard – which this month became a market-making member of the London Bullion Market Association.   The bank also points to higher commodity trading costs in China – aimed at deterring violent price swings after steel prices zoomed 47% higher from 13-year lows in 2016 so far.   "Loose monetary/credit policies...are the main drivers behind the latest sharp rally, rather than improving fundamentals," says analysis from US investment services group Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, warning that China's "shadow banking sector doesn’t price risks correctly because of all sorts of implicit guarantees" from the Beijing government.   "[There's also] rising concern (again) about corporate bond default rates in China," says ICBC Standard Bank, after 90% of Chinese investment funds in corporate bonds lost value last week on what Bloomberg calls "concerns [about] spreading corporate note defaults."   The Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) said last week it is raising transaction fees for rebar steel, while the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) said Thursday it is raising trading margin downpayments for iron ore contracts from 7% to 8%.   Amongst Western money managers, "Gold has been the primary driver of [commodity] investment flows so far in 2016," says the UK's Barclays Bank, "taking over from oil, which was the dominant driver in 2015."   London market-maker and bullion clearing member, Barclays in January closed much of its precious-metals division, and is reportedly struggling to find a buyer for its UK vault.   "[Gold's] correction, if any, is likely to be a temporary pause," says French investment and bullion market-making bank Societe Generale's technical analysis team.   While $1190 per ounce "remains a key support medium term...[gold is now] testing short term channel support" from the gentle uptrend of higher highs and higher lows in April, now coming in at $1230 on SocGen's charts.   Silver prices today held steady with gold bullion, trading at $16.90 per ounce, some 4.5% below last week's sudden 11-month high.   Meantime in India – traditionally the world's No.1 private consumer market for gold – jewelers in Delhi re-started their strike in protest at a new 1% sales tax, with The Hindu newspaper finding "most of the jewellery shops in the capital closed" on Monday despite the fast-approaching Akshaya Tritiya festival and spring wedding season.

meer lezen